Interest rate cut expectations providing support vs. inventory buildup exerting pressure: tin prices hovering at high levels [SMM tin midday review]

At the lunchtime break on August 4, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (2509) closed at 265,390 yuan/mt, up approximately 0.43% from the previous day's settlement price, with the intraday fluctuation range narrowing to 264,980-267,140 yuan/mt. The macro front dominated short-term sentiment, as the US July non-farm payrolls data came in much weaker than expected (with only 73,000 new jobs added, far below the expected 110,000). The combined downward revisions for the previous two months amounted to 258,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. The market's expectation for a US Fed interest rate cut in September surged to 89%, causing the US dollar index to plummet significantly and driving up non-ferrous metals priced in US dollars. On the geopolitical front, the Trump administration's move to raise tariffs on multiple countries to 35% sparked trade risk-aversion sentiment, prompting some capital to flow into industrial metals. However, tin prices were constrained by the supply-demand imbalance in the industry, with gains weaker than those of safe-haven assets like gold.

LME tin prices moved in tandem, closing up 1.62% overnight at $33,215/mt, touching a high of $33,450 during the session, marking the largest single-day gain in two weeks. Although it pulled back slightly to $33,200 in the early Asian market on August 4, LME inventory only increased by 5 mt to 1,950 mt, with the global visible inventory remaining below 10,000 mt. The weakening US dollar continued to provide support for the LME market.